The Fed and Fiscal Policy

The Fed and Fiscal Policy-美聯儲局和會計政策(1)

Markets have responded strongly to Donald Trump’s election victory, pushing up equities, longer-term interest rates, and the dollar. While many factors influence asset prices, expectations of a much more expansionary fiscal policy under the new administration—higher spending, lower taxes, and larger deficits—appear to be an important driver of the recent market moves.



市場對川普的選勝，反應強烈，它拉高了浄值利益(equities)、 長期利率和美元。雖然有很多因素影響了資產價格(asset prices)，但在新政府之下，會有更多擴張性(expansionary) 的會計政策、 高消費、 低稅額和更大赤字等等的「種種期待」，顯然似乎是近期市場的一項重要驅動力。

The Federal Reserve’s reaction to prospective fiscal policy changes has been much more cautious than that of the markets, however. Janet Yellen in December described the central bank as operating under a “cloud of uncertainty,” and the forecasts of Fed policymakers released after the December FOMC meeting showed little change in either their economic outlooks or their interest-rate projections for the next few years.

  Janet Yellen

儘管如此，美聯儲局對未來財政政策變化的反應，一直比市場的反應更為謹慎。在 12 月耶倫主席描述了中央銀行，是在一個"不確定的雲層” 下運作, 並且在12 月 FOMC會議後，所發表的聯儲局政策製訂者的預測，顯示没有什麼改變，不論在經濟展望上，或在今後若干年的利率計劃。

How does the Fed take fiscal policy into account in its planning? What explains the large difference between the reactions of the Fed and the markets to the change in fiscal prospects since the election? I’ll discuss these questions in this post, concluding that the Fed’s cautious response to the possible fiscal shift makes sense, given what we know so far.

INCORPORATING POSSIBLE FISCAL POLICY CHANGES INTO THE ECONOMIC FORECAST

美聯儲如何在其規劃上，考慮其會計的未來政策？如何解釋自從選舉以來，對會計前景的變化，造成美聯儲和市場的巨大差異在那裡？在這文章裡，我將討論這些問題，並將下結論，根据我們所知，美聯儲對可能的財政轉變的謹慎回應，是有意義的。「將可能的會計政策的改變，合併成為經濟預測」。

As a general matter, Fed policymakers view economic or policy developments through the prism of their economic forecast. Developments that push the forecasted path of the economy away from the Fed’s employment and inflation objectives require a compensating policy response; other changes do not. Consequently, to assess the appropriate monetary response to a new fiscal program, Fed policymakers first have to evaluate the likely effects of that program on the economy over the next couple of years.

 柏南克

作為一個一般性的事項，美聯儲決策者，通過他們的經濟預測的棱鏡(從各方面看-through the prism of their economic forecast))，來看經濟或政策的發展。將被預測的經濟路徑，使其脫離美聯儲的就業，和通脹目標的一些發展，需要一項補償性(compensating)的政策反應。而其他的改變則不必這樣。因此，為了評估新的財政計畫，對適當的貨幣反應，美聯儲決策者首先，必要評估該計劃在未來幾年，對經濟的可能影響。

待續-

Ben S. Bernanke (前任聯邦儲備銀行理事主席)

01/29/2017

Justin Lai 編譯

02/16/2017