『中國征服世界之野心』-它如何計劃限制西方對全球的影响力』-(2)-How China Aims to Limit the West’s Global Influence-
作者：
Eswar Prasad is a professor of trade policy at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. (美國康乃爾大學貿易政策教授)
《編按》
在下列續文中，中國强調，以其佔有近三分之一股權的亞洲基楚建設銀行，來推動世界經濟繁榮，絕口不提政治、民主或任何形式的霸權主義(hegemony) 。其目的在先鬆弛經濟落後國家的『戒心』。專制獨裁國家也可以申請貸款，如北韓金小胖可以把中國經濟援助款約一億美元，拿來做其祖父-金日成，聳入雲霄的銅像，讓人民膜拜，而非改善北韓人貧困的生活。另外，文中所提跨國合作藍圖的構想，未訂時間表，給予會員國的優惠條件，何時終止、何時變更，均未提及。此事令人憶及1990年代，台商赴大陸投資時，所被承諾的優厚條件，如三免(三年免稅) 、四減(四年減稅) 、土地分50-90年租期承租，但合租人-大陸單位免租金等。請問如今獎勵辦法與制度何在? 台商為何要趁黑夜『跑路』返台？回不來的台商為何在大陸成為『台灣氓流』………?
The professed multilateral nature of its initiatives allows Beijing to pull other countries more tightly into its fold. It becomes harder for countries that do not share China’s values to stay on the sidelines. Many countries joining with China say they must do so to influence these new institutions from the inside rather than just complain about them from the outside. This was the justification when Britain, Germany and France signed up to become founding members of the Asian infrastructure bank, leaving the United States fuming.
亞洲基楚建設投資銀行
它的一些創舉自稱的多邊性質，使北京能夠更緊密地，將其他國家納入其組織共同體中。不分享中國價值的一些國家，更難留在一旁觀看。加入中國的很多國家說，他們必須如此做，才能從內部影響這些新機構，而不是在外面抱抱怨他們而已。這是英國、德國和法國簽署，成為亞洲基礎設施銀行的創始成員國的正當理由，而留下美國未簽署，在一旁乾瞪眼。
China has also been effective at pulling its potential geopolitical rivals into its economic embrace. Countries such as India and Russia are competitors in many areas. But Beijing has corralled these and two other major emerging market economies, Brazil and South Africa, into economic alliances.
中國在投資銀行背後之野心 習大大和英國首相
中國也一直有效地，將其具有潛在力的地緣政治對手，拉入其經濟懷抱中。諸如印度和俄羅斯等國，在許多領域中是競爭對手。但北京已將這兩國，和另外兩個主要新興市場經濟體，如巴西和南非，團團地納入其經濟聯盟中。
In addressing concerns that the institutions it is setting up will lead to low standards of governance, transparency and efficiency, Beijing has declared that it will uphold, and even improve upon, the standards set by Western-led institutions.
在表達人們關心，在它所設置的培訓機構中會導致管理、 透明化和效率的低標準的問題時，北京已鄭重聲明它將維護，甚至改善，西方國家領導的機構所制定之標準。
Consider the governance structure of the I.M.F. and World Bank. In both organizations, an 85 percent supermajority is needed to approve major policy decisions. The United States, with its voting share of about 16 percent, in effect has veto power, giving it outsize influence over decisions like what projects and countries the institutions fund as well as the conditions attached to the funding.
想想看，國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行的管理結構。在此兩個組織中，如審批重大的政策時，85%的絕對多數是需要的。美國具有約 16%的投票權份額，實際上擁有否決權，對於大案子能給它龐大的影響力來決定，例如什麼專案、什麼國家、什麼機構資金，和融資的附加條件。
The dominance of the Western economies and their worldview, with the United States seen as the economic hegemon and the paragon of free markets and democracy, meant that this arrangement once gave these organizations legitimacy and power. But in recent years, with the declining economic power of the West and the rising clout of China and other emerging market economies, this situation has in fact eroded the legitimacy of such institutions.
西方經濟體以及他們世界觀，與美國被視為經濟霸主，和自由市場與民主楷模，這種絕對優勢，過去意味著這樣的安排，曾經賜予這些組織的合法性和權力。但近年來，隨著西方經濟力的下降，中國和其他新興市場經濟體日益崛起，這種情況事實上已侵蝕了，像這些機構的合法性。
By contrast, at the Asian infrastructure bank, China has a 28 percent voting share and no veto power. Unlike at the I.M.F. and the World Bank, though, approval of major policy decisions at the bank requires only majority support. It is hard to imagine the bank making any decision against China’s wishes. Yet, on paper, this structure beats one in which the dominant country has unbridled veto power, a situation that now rankles other members of the I.M.F. and the World Bank.
對照之下，在亞洲基礎設施銀行，中國有 28%的投票權但沒有否決權。不過，不同于在國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行，銀行重大政策決定之同意，只要多數通過即可。很難想像，銀行會作出任何反對中國政府意願的決定。然而，書面上這種組織結構，比占絕對優勢的國家，肆無忌憚的使用否決權，要好得多，目前此不公平情況，正使國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行其他成員頗感痛心。
For its lending through the Asian infrastructure bank, China has indicated it will choose only projects that meet the highest standards in terms of corporate governance, environmental impact and commercial integrity. But unlike financing from the United States or from Western-dominated aid and financial institutions, Chinese-led projects rarely come with obvious strings attached. With this approach, China avoids sensitive political issues that could irritate loan recipients. Beijing does not bring up uncomfortable subjects such as corruption, freedom of expression, democracy and human rights.
通過亞洲基礎設施銀行的貸款，中國已表明它將只選擇符合公司管理、 環境影響和商業信譽方面的最高標準的專案。但不同于從美國或西方主導的援助和金融機構的融資，中國主導的專案，很少附帶有明顯的限制。(註：引誘人之處) 藉用此法，中國避免可能刺激貸款者的敏感政治問題。北京並未提出令人不舒服的項目，如貪腐、 言論自由、民主和人權。(註：美國及某些西方國家則有現制。易言之，極權國家如北韓、敘利亞等，若成為會員國，亦有貸款權)
In December 2015, President Xi attended a meeting of African leaders in Johannesburg. He came bearing nearly $60 billion in loans, loan write-offs and other forms of financing. Then, to the delight of the leaders, including the many despots in attendance, he uttered words that were music to their ears: “China supports the settlement of African issues by Africans in the African way.”
在 2015 年 12 月，習近平主席出席了在約翰尼斯堡舉行的非洲領導人會議。他帶來近$ 600 億的貸款、 貸款核銷和其他形式的融資。當時，使在場的領袖們，包括出席的許多暴君們感到高興的是，他說出了令他們悅耳動聽的話:"中國支持非洲問題，由非洲人，用非洲的方式來解決"。
China’s strategy amounts to a systematic displacing of a multilateral system that was built on high ideals and trust, mainly of the United States but also of other advanced economies. Institutions like the I.M.F. and the World Bank were meant to improve national economies and global cooperation rather than propagate the power and influence of any particular country. While the United States benefited from its outsize role in these institutions, the values Washington espoused, such as free markets and democracy, were seen to benefit economic and human welfare around the world.
中國的策略，等於一種系統性地取代，建立在主要是美國式，和其他先進國家經濟體的，崇高理想和信賴的多邊制度。如國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行等機構，旨在改善國家經濟和全球合作，而不是傳播任何特定的國家的權力和影響力。雖然美國從這些機構中，因所担任的巨大角色而得益，但華盛頓擁護的價值觀，例如自由市場和民主，則被視為有利於世界各地的經濟和人類福利。
China’s vision of multilateralism will certainly serve China well, allowing it to expand its economic and geopolitical influence in a manner that will become ever harder to resist. Whether this will be good for the world remains to be seen.
中國對多邊主義的眼光必將對中國有好處，允許它以更難以抵擋的方式，來擴大其經濟，和地緣政治的影響。這是否對世界有益，姑且拭目以待。
《感想》：
一百多年來，世界各大經貿規則是歐美國家所訂，有些大政策他們『說了算』。今日中國崛起，要『分一点』好處，可以，但應以公平、民主方式，若依共產主義，以馬(克思) 、列(寧) 、毛(澤東) 、鄧(小平) 四人的思想為前提，恐難使以美國為首的西方經濟體信服。
蔣毛和談的歷史畫面-美國人在左，蔣經國在左後
1945年大戰後，國共和談是美國促成的，美國人提防的是『蔣介石殺毛澤東』，破壞中國統一，但結果是『毛澤東成王、老蔣變寇』，這是無可挽回的歷史。對中共的技倆，美國人比其他國家更清楚，可能這也是它参與『一帶一路』之部分原因吧。至於中國的企圖心? 實現孫中山先生的「世界大同」? 絕對不是! (definitely not) 而是「吃」掉全世界。習大大的親信-王岐山等人污來的錢，大部分存在美國，至少以「百億」美金計。試想中國人的錢，中國共產黨『無官不污』，何况他國之錢? 這是簡單『邏輯』。因此柯林頓總統夫人-希拉蕊曾預言：『中國這個只重私利，顧公益/公義的國家，很難再撐得過4分之1世紀，即25年』。
Justin Lai 編譯於美國南加州
09/08/2017
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