中國征服世界之野心

『中國征服世界之野心』-它如何計劃限制西方對全球的影响力』-(1 )-How China Aims to Limit the West’s Global Influence-

作者：

Eswar Prasad is a professor of trade policy at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. (美國康乃爾大學貿易政策教授/布魯金學院高級研究員)

《編按》

當有些台灣人每日仍陶醉於「藍綠政争」時，是否也應抽出一點時間來關心世界大事，例如一海之隔的中國大陸，正有何種企圖心。姑不論它武力多強大，也不談它要花幾個小時可以『解放』台灣，本文要討論的是美國學者如何探討它-征服全世界的野心。當年美、蘇對抗，蘇俄除了武器之外，沒有錢可抗美國。今日中國大陸，在武器發展方面緊跟美、俄，而人民幣也逐漸有取代美元之勢。以前台灣人說『台灣錢淹脚目』，難道現在大陸錢『淹到肚臍』? 尤其它們正積心處慮要主導國際金融組織，以和美國分庭抗理。許多人不知『一帶一路』為何義，這是它們『赤化』全球的野心。從前一條「絲路」沒啥了不起，它們已在各國普設『孔子學院』也沒什麼，將來的絲路要貫穿全球，這就是它們的野心…. 請看美國經貿學者對中國大陸擬掌控國際金融組織的『雄心』。

P.S. 本文以英、漢兩種語文登出，旨在鼓勵年青朋友，多學會一種語言，才能掌握世界局勢，勉之。

                           

In January, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, President Xi Jinping of China called his country a champion of free trade and globalization. And at an international conference in Beijing in May, he laid out China’s grand vision of promoting global integration by linking Asia, Europe and beyond through a new network of roads, railways and sea routes.

今年 1 月，在瑞士達沃斯世界經濟論壇中，習近平稱他的國家是自由貿易和全球化的冠軍。于 5 月在北京國際會議上，他展示中國促進全球一體化的宏偉願景，在此願景中，通過一個新的公路、 鐵路和海上航線網路，它將連接歐、亞兩洲及其外圍地區。

Skeptics have derided the notion that China, which has resisted dropping the many barriers that restrict the free flow of goods and capital across its borders, is suddenly all-in on globalization. But this criticism misses the bigger picture.

懷疑論者對這個想法，一直嗤之以鼻，因為對一直拒绝跨越，限制商品和資本自由流動的許多障碍的中國，如今中國却突然全力卯上「全球化」的概念。但是這種批評錯過了更大的想象願景。

China is fashioning a new form of multilateralism, one in which it sets the tone and defines the rules of the game. This strategy will advance its economic and political influence in a far more effective manner than a unilateral approach built on brute economic force, a tactic that has produced mixed results for China so far.

中國正在塑造一種多邊主義的新形式，在此形式中，它定下了基調，並界定遊戲規則。這一戰略將比單方面的做法，更有效地推動其經濟和政治的影響，其單方面的對策，乃建構在粗暴的經濟力，此經濟力到目前為止，為中國已生產好壞參半結果的一項策略。

With the United States apparently pulling back from multilateralism, China is deploying to great effect an approach that has been some years in the making but is now bearing fruit.

由於美國顯然把多邊主義抽回不用，故中國正在部署可達到很大效果的一種對策，此對策好幾年來正在製作中，但現在已結出成果。

This form of multilateralism is built on transactional principles very different from the type of global order the United States and other Western economies have championed, one built on trust and mutual cooperation. It will eschew values like democracy, human rights and freedom of expression, which the United States has long sought to promote around the world.

這種多邊主義的形式，建立在商業交易上，這些原則非常不同於，美國和其他西方國家經濟體，一直所衛護的全球秩序的類型，它是建立在信賴和相互合作的類型。它將避免美國長期以來，一直試圖推廣到世界各地的價值觀，例如民主、 人權和言論自由。

Beijing’s strategy has two main prongs. The first is to change the rules of the game from within, by expanding Chinese influence in existing international institutions.

北京的戰略有兩個主要突出點。第一是藉通過擴大中國，對現有國際機構的影響力，從內部改變遊戲規則。

China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, committing to opening its own markets to foreign goods and investment in return for better access to markets worldwide for its exports. China did indeed benefit, kicking its manufacturing machine into high gear and boosting its exports.

中國在 2001 年，加入世界貿易組織，承諾開放外國商品和投資的市塲，以交換取得全球更好的出口市場。中國確實受惠，高速提高其製造機械的生產量，並增加其出口。

But the other side of the bargain — China’s opening — was not fulfilled. Foreign exporters and investors still face many barriers in China. To sell goods there, foreign companies often have to sign up with local partners. Foreign businesses undertaking production in China also have to partner with local companies, requiring transfers of technological expertise and intellectual property. Foreign investment is still restricted in certain sectors, including financial services like insurance.

但從這筆國際交易的另一面來看，中國的開放並不透徹。外國出口商和投資者，在中國仍然面臨許多障礙。若擬在中國銷售貨品，外國公司經常須要與當地合作夥伴簽約。在中國從事製造業的外商，也不得不與當地公司合資合夥，中方要求專業技術和智慧財產權的轉移。(註：如早期台商的投資模式，到頭來技術轉移了，資本也被吃掉) 外國投資仍然在某些部門受到限制，包括金融服務，如保險業等。

Meanwhile, China has become the second-largest economy and one of the biggest traders in the world, allowing it to hold sway within the World Trade Organization. The country is now one of the prime users of the W.T.O. dispute-settlement process to protect its own interests and to aggressively counter trade actions brought against it by other countries.

同時，中國已成為第二大經濟體，和世界最大貿易商之一，它被允許在世界貿易組織內，佔有支配地位。現在它已成為世貿組織中，使用爭端解決程式的主要國家之一，以保護其利益，並積極地對抗其他國家，提出訴訟反對它的貿易行為。

With its rising economic clout, China has also been able to raise its voting shares at international financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. At these organizations, the United States and other advanced Western economies together still have the dominant voting power. So, China has been subtle in its approach, creating alliances with other emerging-market countries like India and Russia to advance its priorities.

因其經濟影響力與日俱增，中國也已經能夠提高，其在國際金融機構，如國際貨幣基金組織，和世界銀行中的投票，票數權。當然在這些組織中，美國和其他西方的先進經濟體，合在一起，仍佔有主導否决權之地位。因此，中國在其方法上，一直深藏不露、小心翼翼地與其他新興市場國家，如印度和俄羅斯，建立貿易聯盟以推進其優先事項。

The second prong of China’s strategy is to set up its own international institutions. These put a multilateral sheen on projects in which Beijing controls the purse strings and also makes the rules of the game.

中國的戰略的第二出擊主力，是創立它自己的國際機構。這些組織，在多邊照亮了一些北京可以控制錢袋，也可制訂遊戲規則的大專案。

Initiatives like One Belt, One Road — the plan to invest $1 trillion or more in transcontinental infrastructure — and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which started operation last year, allow Beijing to cloak its influence behind the facade of a large group of countries, all with ostensibly significant roles in running these institutions rather than a position that requires them to follow Beijing’s commands.

如『一帶一路』的新創舉，就是計劃在跨洲的基礎設施上，投資 $ 1 兆或更多的金額，和去年開始運作的亞洲基礎設施的投資銀行，這兩項允許北京得以掩蓋其背後的影響力。這一大群具有明顯舉足輕重角色的這些國家，其地位是在運行這些機構，而非被要求遵奉北京的命令。

When China wants to show off its raw economic power, it can put on quite a show. The One Belt, One Road conference held in Beijing in May drew nearly 30 national leaders from four continents, an array of former heads of state, and numerous leaders from major public and private financial organizations. The gathering will someday be remembered not for who attended or for how much money was put up, but rather as a display of the Chinese strategy to expand its geopolitical influence.

當中國想要炫耀其原始的經濟力時，它可以推出一場好戲。5 月在北京舉行的「一帶一路」的會議，吸引了四個大洲，近30位國家領導人， 陣列中包括前國家元首、和無數來自主要的公家和私人金融機構的領導人。總有一日，人們將記住此聚會的，並非何人出席了會議，或籌了多少錢，而在展示中國，擴大其地緣政治影響力的戰略。

Justin Lai 編譯於美國南加州

09/06/2017