The China Puzzle -中國謎團

The China Puzzle-『中國謎團』-1

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD, N.Y.T. (紐約時報社論-刊登于Sept.16, 2017)

《編按》

最近不少台灣人憂慮，中國何時武力犯台。2018? 2020? 台灣又能撐多久….. 等等。其實中、美、台三地的問題，中美關係決定一切，兩國若能互相信任，中國不必單方面挑起事端，發動台海戰事，兩國若互相猜疑，或中國為安撫國内急進派而冒然出兵，但這個代價太高，中國豈能不三思而行?

                             

自從1970年代尼克森總統敲開中國大門，美國人開始對中國親善，並送它進入聯合國，美、中合作對抗蘇俄，直到1990年代蘇聯解體。從福特總統至歐巴馬，對中國，不論共和民主兩黨幾乎均表示友善。而此期間，中國也逐漸「改革開放」，如今羽毛已豐。但此友善態度隨川普的上台，有某些程度的改變。川普常不經過國務院而隨興發表個人看法。川普預定今年11月，親訪中國，中、美存在之重要問題，包含北韓核試挑釁、美、中貿易逆差及南海霸權問題等，在在考慮兩國領導人之智慧。按目前情勢看，白宮幕僚能掌握中國及中美情勢之智囊者十分有限，相對地，中國方面比較穩定瞭解目前形勢。川、習兩人個性迥異，前者常不經幕僚，即以『生意人』之條件交換方式，代替外交磋商而貿然出口，後者是共產黨鬥争中成長的，看似較為內斂穩重。

本文乃國際著名平面媒體-紐約時報之社論，可見其監督政府之用心，不論川普理不理會它的評論。

【本文】：

Steve Bannon, the former presidential confidante, was as apocalyptic as ever about China on the eve of his trip to Hong Kong. The man who had all but declared “economic war” with China in earlier interviews said to a Times reporter, “A hundred years from now, this is what they’ll remember — what we did to confront China on its rise to world domination.” On arrival, in a speech to a big investor conference, he seemed to have softened a bit, praising China’s leadership and offering hopes that a trade war could be averted.

前川普總統的知己密友，貝隆史蒂夫，(按：已離開白宮) 在出發前往香港旅行的前夕，關于中國，他曾經看作像世界末日一樣十分悲觀。此君在較早的訪談中，幾乎對中國宣佈"經濟戰爭"，他對紐約時報記者說， "百年後的今日他們會記住 ，我們在面對中國之崛起，並竄升至世界的統治地位時的所作所為。" 到達目的地後，在大投資者的會議上，他的語氣似乎鬆動了一下，稱讚中國的領導階層，和祭出一場貿易戰可以避免的希望。

Mr. Bannon reflects a basic tension in the Trump administration: whether to challenge China (and if so, where and when) or work with it. There is, on the one hand, huge resentment toward Beijing — which Mr. Bannon shares — among those who believe that China has grown its economy at the expense of the working and middle classes. (The focus of his speech was instructive: “American economic nationalism and the populist revolt and Asia,” the three intertwined in his mind.) And then there are those who believe that without China’s help there can be no serious deterrent to North Korea (which fired off another missile near Japan last week), no lasting stability in the South China Sea and the Asian rim as a whole.

貝隆(Bannon) 先生反映了川普政府基本的緊張： 是否要挑戰中國 (如果是的話，何時、何地較妥) 要不然就與它合作。一方面，對北京有相當大的怨恨 —包含貝隆本身—還有在那些相信中國之獲得經濟成長，乃經由犧牲中產階層利益的人們之中，他也是其中之–。(他發言的重點是具有教育意義: 「美國經濟國家主義和民粹主義的反抗和亞洲」，這三項在他心中交雜在一起。)然後，有一些人認為，如果沒有中國的幫助，就無法嚴重地遏阻北韓（它上周發射了另一枚導彈至接近日本之處）、在南中國海和亞洲周邊，整體上也不會有一個有持久的穩定。

This much is true: For the foreseeable future, no relationship is more crucial than that between these two nations. Together, they have a combined population of more than 1.7 billion people. Their economies dwarf all others, they both have nuclear weapons, they both have veto power in the United Nations Security Council. Their appetites and ambitions shape the globe: Together they can make for a more peaceful world; as adversaries, they can make a mess of things.

                      

                   前白宮高級顧問因與川普女婿意見不合而離職

這都是真的：在可預見的未來，沒有比這兩個國家之間的關系更重要。合在一起，他們人口總和超過 17 億人。此兩國的經濟加在一起，高於所有其他國家，他們都擁有核子武器，他們兩國在聯合國安理會皆擁有否決權。他們的欲望和野心塑造全球：兩國的合作可促成一個更和平的世界；但若相互為敵，可以把世界搞得一團糟。

To some extent, President Trump seems to understand all that. He engaged early with President Xi Jinping, at his Mar-a-Lago resort, and has sought to regularly consult the Chinese leader, including a recent exchange that the president described as a “very strong phone call.” Yet, at the same time, he has failed to articulate a coherent strategy toward China or to achieve significant progress on the many consequential issues. He seems also to lump all China-related issues into one big, menacing ball — trade, tariffs, North Korea — rather than dealing with them separately, and this has added more complications.

川普總統似乎某種程度地明白所有這一切。之前他約了中國國家主席習近平，來到他在Mar-a-Lafo 湖邊的假家村，並一直設法定期和中國領導人磋商，包括總統形容為「強而有力的電話交談」的意見交換。然而，同時他卻未能明白表達一項，對中國連貫性的戰略，也未能在許多重要問題上取得顯著的進展。他也似乎把所有與中國有關的問題，籠統地混雜成為一個大，且具威脅性的球團，包含貿易、 關稅、 朝鮮等 — 而宣非分別地處理它們，也因此增加了更多的問題併發症。

Additionally, the administration has been slow to get China experts into senior posts at the White House and State Department; for good or ill, Mr. Bannon was one person with Mr. Trump’s ear who took a big interest in China. Now there is no senior person with close ties to the president to oversee China policy, which does little to foster a consistent policy or reflect well on American leadership.

此外，川普政府當局，在白宮和國務院內，一直緩慢地地重用中國問題專家，並安插他們在高級職位上。不論或好、壞，貝隆(Bannon)先生，總算是一位對中國有高度興趣的，川普先生的重要資訊收集人。現在則缺少一位和總統關係密切的資深人士，可以負責監督中國政策，因此無助于促進連貫的政策，或好好地反映美國的領導地位。

待續

Justin Lai 編譯

10/08/2017