The Fed and Fiscal
Policy-聯儲局和會計政策(4)
Alternatively, if Congress opts to
reduce the deficit impact of an infrastructure program by financing it through
tax credits and public-private partnerships, as candidate Trump proposed, the program might turn out to be relatively small.
或者，如果國會選擇，藉由扣抵稅額，和公家、民營的夥伴關係，而予以融資，以減少基礎設施專案的赤字影響，如候選人川普當時的提議，計劃可能就會相對地小。
Significant
tax cuts do seem likely this year, but again the details matter. Structural
reforms of the corporate tax codes are being considered, but the range of
possible outcomes is wide. Based on what we’ve heard both from Trump and from
congressional Republicans, personal tax cuts, especially for higher-income
households, are likely to be a big part of the program, and probably the easiest part on which to reach agreement. However, whatever the longer-term benefits of tax
reform, high-income consumers may save much of any tax cut they receive,
implying that the effects on demand of such cuts are likely to be smaller than
the effects of direct government spending.
今年，重大的減稅政策的確有可能，但再重復一次，細節問題很重要。公司稅法的結構改革正在考慮，但可能結果的範圍很大。根據我們所聽到的來自川普和國會的共和黨人，個人的減稅政策，特別是高收入的家庭，都可能佔了計畫的一大部分，也可能是最容易達成看法一致的部分。然而，無論稅收改革的長期利益是什麼，高收入的消費者可能節省，他們得到的任何減稅的大部分，這意味著，對需求的這種削減的影響，可能比政府直接支出的影響較小。
Regarding timing: No one knows at this point how long Congress will take
to pass legislation—fiscal changes can be both complex and contentious. And,
once passed, fiscal programs can take a while to have their effect
(infrastructure programs, for example, can take a number of years to build
out). Consequently, the impact of new fiscal measures may be felt in 2018 or
2019, rather than this year. Of course, that gives the Fed more time to assess
the program and determine an appropriate response.
時机之問題︰ 此時，沒有人知道需時多久國會才通過立法 — 因會計的改變可能是既複雜又有爭議。一旦獲得通過，會計計劃可以需要一段時間，才能看到們的結果（例如基礎建設方案，要若干年才能打造出來）。因此新的會計措施的影響，可能要到2018年或 2019 年，而不是今年就感受到的。當然，這給美聯儲更多的時間來評估，並決定適當的回應。
3. Other policy changes will also have
economic effects, which may reinforce or offset the fiscal effects.
3.其他政策變化也會產生經濟效應，這些效應可能加強或抵消會計政策的影響。
The
president-elect proposed policy changes in many areas, not just in fiscal
policy. Some proposed changes, such as plans for deregulation, seem to have
been positive for business and market sentiment, but others may work in the opposite direction. For
example, the possibility of new trade barriers or even trade wars concerns some
businesspeople, and changes to health care policy are likely to create both winners and losers. Overall, according to the December minutes, some of the
business contacts consulted by Fed policymakers “thought that their businesses
could benefit from possible changes in federal spending, tax, and regulatory
policies, while others were uncertain about the outlook for significant
government policy changes or were concerned that their businesses might be adversely affected by some of
the proposals under discussion.”
除了會計政策之外，總統當選人也提出了許多領域的政策改變。所提出的某些變更，例如，計畫放鬆管制，對業務和市場情緒似乎都是有積極的作用，但其他改變的效果可能會背道而馳。例如，新的貿易壁壘或甚至貿易戰爭問題的可能性，以及健保政策的變化，很可能創造出贏家和輸家。總體來看，依據12 月的會議紀錄，美聯儲政策制定者和商界的諮詢與訪談，"以為他們的生意可能從聯邦支出、 稅收、 和監管政策，可能的變化當中獲益，而另外有人，則對政府政策變化的前景不確定，或擔心他們的業務可能會受到，正在討論中的提案的不利影響。
The
minutes are not explicit, but it’s possible that FOMC participants also
considered the international implications—and the resulting feedback effects on
the US—of Trump policy proposals. For example, the Mexican peso and stock
prices have already been adversely affected by concerns about prospective US
trade and immigration policies. Heightened international stresses would have
implications for the US growth outlook as well.
會議記錄是不明確的，但有可能，聯邦公開市場委員會的參與者，也考慮它們對國際的暗示意義 —以及川普的政策建議，對美國的影響。例如，墨西哥幤-比索和股票價格有已經受到不利的影響，因為擔憂未來美國貿易和移民政策。升高的國際壓力可能會對美國經濟增長前景，有些暗示意義。
4. Asset price changes may limit the effects
of a fiscal program on the pace of growth.
4.資產價格的變動，可能會限制會計計畫對經濟增長速度的影響。
Financial
markets are forward-looking, and, as I’ve discussed, asset prices have already
built in expectations of a strongly expansionary fiscal stance in the next few
years. However, the changes in asset prices themselves may partially offset the effects of the eventual fiscal program on
economic growth. 金融市場具有前瞻性，和如同本人所提過，資產價格已經建立了，因預期在今後幾年內，會有強烈擴張性的會計政策。然而，資產價格本身的變動，可能會部分抵消，最終財政計畫對經濟增長的影響。
For
example, all else equal, the increase in longer-term interest rates since the
election may reduce investment spending, including home construction, and the
stronger dollar could prove a headwind for
exports. (On the other hand, higher equity prices
would tend to support higher rates of consumer and business spending.) In the
Fed staff forecasts for the December meeting, according to the minutes, the
positive effects of assumed fiscal changes on growth and inflation were “substantially counterbalanced” by the restraining effects of higher longer-term
interest rates and the stronger dollar.
例如，若所有其他條件相同，選戰以來長期利率的增加，可能減少投資的支出，包括住房建設和美元的走強，可能證明出口業頂風而行。（另一方面，較高的净值價格，會傾向于對消費者和企業支出的支持）。依會議紀錄，在美聯儲工作人員預測 12 月的會議紀要顯示，假定的財政變化對經濟增長和通脹的積極影響，是受到較高、較長期的利率和美元走強的抑制，而"大幅被抵消了"。
Overall,
there appear to be good reasons for the Fed to remain cautious about
incorporating a major new fiscal expansion into the economic outlook, and thus
anticipating more-rapid increases in short-term interest rates than previously
projected. Because of uncertainty about the timing, size, and composition of
the fiscal package, and the resulting uncertainty about its likely economic
effects, Fed policymakers are, for now, sticking to
their baseline forecast and treating a big fiscal program as an “upside risk.” As the outlines of the Trump administration’s fiscal
policy become clear, the Fed’s projections—and its actual policy—will adjust
accordingly.
總體來看，似乎有充分的理由看岀，美聯儲繼續對主要的新財政擴張，納入經濟的前景展望，持謹慎態度，也因此期待比先前預期，更多短期利率的快速增加。由於一些不確定因素，包括時間、 大小和整套會計刺激方案的組成，和導致可能的經濟影響，美聯儲決策者目前是，堅守其預測底線，和把大的會計計畫當作"上行"風險來看待。由於川普政府的會計財政政策的輪廓變成清晰可見，美聯儲的預測 — 和其實際的執行政策 — 將會相應調整。
[1] Indeed, according to the minutes, only about half
of the FOMC participants assumed any fiscal changes at all in their baseline
projections.
[1] 事實上，紀錄，只有約一半的聯邦公開市場委員會參與者，假定任何會計的變化，根本在其基準的預測。
作者：
01/29/2017
Justin Lai (賴正雄) 編譯
03/06/2017
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