Britain Leaves on a Cry of Anger and
Frustration》-英國帶著憤怒與無奈的哭喊離開歐盟
紐約時報社論-JUNE 24, 2016
歐盟國家 Brexit = Britain Exit 英國退出
The anticipation of a calamity is never the same as the calamity. For all that was said and written about what would or could happen if Britain voted to quit the European Union, nothing quite matches the shock and confusion that Britain and the world felt on Friday.
對於某一大災難的預期,從無法像這場災難一樣準確。僅管說過和寫過,如果英國投票決定退出歐盟,有關將會或可能發生的事,但上週五英國和世界所感受到的震驚與困惑,卻是空前的鉅大。
Somehow the commentators and politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen had assumed that for all the isle’s insularity, for all the familiar euroskepticism and grousing about immigrants, when the time came Britons would revert to form and remain in their proper place in the front ranks of the Western world.
不知何故,評論員和政客、 官僚和商人先前均曾假定,以為儘管英國本身海島的孤立、人們熟悉的對歐盟之懷疑論、以及對移民的抱怨,但當時機一來到,英國人就會恢復和繼續適當地,擔任西方世界名列前茅國家的地位。
倫敦街頭市民的無奈 "英國珍重再見!"
Something very different has happened. Defying the warnings of every major economic and political institution in Britain, Europe and the United States, millions of voters across Britain concluded that a gamble on a dangerous unknown was better than staying with a present over which they felt they had lost control. It was a cry of anger and frustration from more than half the country against those who wield power, wealth and privilege, both in their own government and in Brussels, and against global forces in a world that they felt was squeezing them out.
但極其不尋常的事情發生了。無視來自英國、 歐洲和美國每一個主要經濟和政治團體的警告,數以百萬計的英國選民竟然做出這個結論-寧願對未來某種危險與不確定性下了賭注,而不願維持他們覺得無法掌控的一種現狀。它是憤怒和沮喪的哭喊,這種感覺來自半數以上的英國國民,他們反對在他們自己的政府和布魯塞爾,那些揮舞權力、 財富和特權的人,他們也反對來自全球的壓力,他們感到已經被此種壓力擠得喘不過氣來。
再見! 英國
The repercussions were immediate. The pound crashed to the lowest level since 1985 and markets tumbled. Prime Minister David Cameron, who foolishly called the referendum largely as a ploy to deal with political problems in his party, announced he will resign. It will now require major feats of leadership by financial and political institutions in Britain and on both sides of the Atlantic to manage a period of profound economic uncertainty. That process will not be made easier by political uncertainty in Britain, by a Europe in turmoil over the refugee crisis and a United States in a tumultuous election year.
這個普遍又事先未料到的影響是立即可見的。自 1985 年以來,英鎊重挫到了最低水準,市場暴跌。愚蠢地稱公民投票在很大程度上,是作為一個處理他的政黨的政治問題之策略的英國首相-大衛卡梅倫,宣佈他將辭職。這一段强烈的經濟不確定性的過度時期,現在卻需要英國,及大西洋兩岸在金融和政治機構具有領導本領的團體來管理。英國政治的不確定性、歐洲難民危機的動盪、和處在一個動盪不安選舉年的美國,都無法把這一進程的難題變得更容易解決。
如果英國退出,歐盟人民會如何?
Technically, the primary consequence of the vote is that Britain must begin the process of disentangling itself from the E.U.’s common market, following procedures set out in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. But this has never been done before and is certain to be enormously complicated for Britain and the union.
從技術上講,此次公投的主要後果是,英國必須開始從歐盟的共同市場脫身,並遵照在里斯本所訂條約的第 50 條條款。但此事從未做過,一定會對英國和歐盟造成極大的複雜性。
英磅可能貶值20%,汽油、家用、購物及渡假全上漲.......
A large proportion of Britain’s internal regulations is based on E.U. rules and will need to be revised. At the same time, E.U. countries are Britain’s primary trading partners, and there will be innumerable questions about the terms of Britain’s participation in the single European market. Germany and France are not likely to be charitable, if only to dissuade euroskeptics on the Continent from following Britain’s lead. And every step of the negotiations will require agreement from 27 fractious E.U. member states.
英國內部規章很大的一部分乃根據歐盟規則而訂,因此英國之這些規章將需要加以修訂。同時,歐盟國家是英國的主要貿易夥伴,而英國今後只参加單一歐洲市場的條件,恐會遭到無數的質疑。德國和法國都不可能伸出慈善同情之手,唯一能做的,只有對其他歐盟,仍持懷疑論的國家,勸阻他們切勿仿傚英國的做法而退出。因此每一步的談判妥協,都將需要現有27個歐盟成員國的同意。
The British government will have its own problems of unity, as Scotland and Northern Ireland assess the advantages of staying in the United Kingdom against the disadvantages of losing membership in the European Union.
英國政府會有其自身統一的問題,由於蘇格蘭和北愛爾蘭評估,繼續留在聯合王國(UK)的優點,或將勝過喪失歐盟會員身份的弊端。
【編譯者個人看法】:
1) 英國離開歐盟已使全球股市重挫,其衝擊力不可謂不大。但回顧歷史,歐陸统一非但政治上不易,經濟上尤難,因種族繁多,文化背景也不同。從羅馬帝國、鄂圖曼帝國、奧匈帝國、到近代希特勒的第三帝國(the 3rd Reich),均無法永恆持續,而且英國一向被排除在外(excluded)。1960年代美國猶太裔(American Jewish)政客季辛吉(Henry Kissinger) 曾大膽預言,世界上將分成五個政治區:美國、日本、蘇俄、中國與歐陸;不但政治結構如此,經濟體亦復如是,才能符合全球的權力平衡(Balance of Power),而世界情勢多少循此理論運行著。
2) 當年英國曾思慮很久才加入E.U., 想不到如今卻首先倡言退出。當然因素錯綜複雜,有其本身之問題,而歐盟中其他不長進的國家如希臘等拖累整個歐盟的情形也有。
3) 西方分析師認為英國之決定退出,是削弱歐洲與重塑英國西方世界領袖角色的票選決定(This is a vote that weakens Europe and reshapes Britain’s role as a leader of the west. ) 在E.U. 中,英國自屬『大咖』(份量重的國家) ,它的退出對整個經濟體不無關係。可能代表共和黨競選總統的川普(Donald Trump) ,卻認為這是必然的世界趨勢(trend) 。川普一向批評美國多管閒事,應開始自掃門前雪,也應了台灣俚語的真理『日頭赤炎炎,隨人顧性命』(During scorching sunshine each one is fleeing for his own life)。彷彿2仟多年前中國春秋戰國時代的『合縱與連橫』之國際政治藝術,一再重演,也不斷應驗。
4) 英國離開歐盟已使全球股市重挫,其衝擊力不可謂不大。雖有些補救方法(last-ditch efforts) 或許可以挽回,例如,a. 國會反對 b. 重新公投 c. 歐盟讓步 d. 蘇格蘭及北愛爾蘭提出否決,但機會不大(chances are slim)。
5) 如今歐盟剩下德國與法國領導,能支撐多久,不得而知。倘德、法兩大國也步英國後塵,相繼退出,則歐盟勢必解體,這是美國最不願意看到的情形(scenario) ,但也無能為力。而世界經濟體,除日本和中國外,現又增加了印度。世界上個人財富所得,包括中、印、日三個亞洲國家已超越歐美諸國。尤其中國潛力無窮,也雄心勃勃。以前台灣人常自誇,台灣商機無限,用一句俗語形容:『台灣錢淹脚目(足部) 』,現在的中國是否『錢淹到了肚臍』? 以前全世界產品中常見的『中國製』(Made in China) 現已不稀奇,如今中國人把整個工廠和工程搬到其他國家內部,包含高鐵等已處處可見。尤其在歐洲南方的非洲,積極開發佈署,以近水樓臺之便,向歐洲傾銷物美價廉的產品,掌控歐洲貿易機會,增加對歐盟之影響力,進而取代美國成為全球第一大的經濟體,也不無可能。
Justin Lai 編譯
06/27/2016
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